Oscar Predictions

I've been making good use of Cablevision's free movie Tuesdays as well as my roommate's Cinematographer's Guild free screenings to see pretty much every worthwhile movie up for awards at this year's Oscars. I feel pretty qualified as a result to offer my own predictions, so I'm gonna go ahead and do so. Bear in mind the Academy votes subjectively. As such, there's sometimes a disconnect between who should win and who actually wins. This, after all, is not a science. On to it...

Note: films appearing next to an asterisk mean I haven't seen them.

Actor in a Supporting Role:

• Josh Brolin, Milk
• Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
• Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
• Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
• Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

This is a classic case of the Academy's subjectivity. Heath Ledger's had this wrapped up for months, right? Didn't we decide this over the summer? I thought we had until I saw Doubt this week. Hate to be a dick, but as much as I loved Ledger's turn as The Joker (hint: A LOT!!!), Phillip Seymour Hoffman put in a far better dramatic performance. Had it not been for an untimely death, Hoffman would have Oscar #2. Instead, Mr. First Knight wins one for posterity's sake. Special mention should be made for Michael Shannon, who was amazing in a reduced role. Congratulations, you definitely have your name out there for the future.

Actress in a Supporting Role:

• Amy Adams, Doubt
• Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona*
• Viola Davis, Doubt
• Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

I've heard some rumblings for MarisaTomei here but I don't think so. It's no fault of her own; the part she played just wasn't conducive. To me, Amy Adams is the only choice. She went 12 rounds with two heavyweights - Streep and Hoffman - and looked damn good in the process. Davis was also fantastic in the same film, only her screen time barely amounted to fifteen minutes over one extended scene. Though I haven't seen Cruz's performance, I have a hard time seeing her as an Oscar winner. Adams is the safe pick.

Actor in a Leading Role:

• Richard Jenkins, The Visitor*
• Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
• Sean Penn, Milk
• Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Frank Langella! The man is in his late seventies, been in the game for a half century and has yet to be recognized. What more do you need? Better still, he's an absolute tour-de-force in this film. The climactic scene, where he takes over without saying a word, is nothing short of breathtaking. Talk about a thousand words! Mickey Rourke was also really excellent - clearly his best effort. I could see it going to him, I just think Langella is more deserving. The dark horse is Penn, only because the left-leaning Academy loves these call to action movies and he's really good in it. I'm sticking with Langella though.

Actress in a Leading Role

• Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married*
• Angelina Jolie, Changeling
• Melissa Leo, Frozen River*
• Meryl Streep, Doubt
• Kate Winslet, The Reader

This category is a bit of a wildcard for me given I've yet to see 40% of the entrants' work. With that said, I can rule out Anne "Havoc" Hathaway on general principle. And though I'm generally averse to "the buzz", I've heard zilch about Melissa Leo. Except, you know, that she was in Righteous Kill. So yeah, no. Meryl Streep should win, but Kate Winslet will. Here's why: Winslet is a fantastic actress who's been nominated six times but never won. Furthermore, voters will also have her very strong performance in Revolutionary Road fresh in their minds. Meanwhile, Meryl Streep is one of the very most celebrated actresses of her time. All of this equals triumph for Winslet. I do hope all the posturing can be laid to rest and Streep is given her due, especially since she's only won twice in 15 nominations herself, but I just don't see it. Kate Winslet proves that fucking pubescent German boys = ultimate success.

Directing:

• Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
  
• Stephen Daldry, The Reader
  
• David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
  
• Gus Van Sant, Milk

This is by far the toughest category for me to predict. I make no qualms in my admission that I know little of the technical side of the film industry. While I know jack shit of editing or cinematography, and realize film direction is often about management as much as it is about art or being tech-savvy, I'm going for it regardless. The obstacle here is that every film is exceptional and does a great job of drawing the viewer in. This is definitely not a weak year. Still, I think it comes down to Danny Boyle and David Fincher. The former helmed the surprise favorite of the season. It's charming, stylish, and above all, very well put together. Fincher crafted the only true epic of the season. Both are worthy. I'm going with David Fincher here, and I don't even really know why. It's just a bit more traditional, and I feel like that could be the difference maker.

Best Picture:

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
  
• Frost/Nixon
• Milk
• The Reader
• Slumdog Millionaire

Like I said earlier, all of these selections are fantastic. That's not something I can say every year, when there are shit sandwiches getting recognition I don't understand (see There Will Be Blood, Titanic). There's not a weak film in the bunch. However, as good as they all are, picture of the year comes down to two: Slumdog Millionaire and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. It's not surprising there's a direct overlap with the previous category because these two films stand head and shoulders above the competition. Recent history favors an overlap of best picture and director Oscars. I'm going against the grain: Slumdog is more than deserving. It's one of the most unique, well-done, entertaining, exciting, well-acted films in recent memory. For the record, each film is a must see. The Reader is wonderful as well, a close third. Here's my order from best to almost best:

1. Slumdog Millionaire
2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
3. The Reader
4. Frost/Nixon
5. Milk